Italy's cured-meat industry saw preliminary 2025 figures reveal modest domestic consumption growth but surging exports, pushing the sector beyond 2.5 billion euros in overseas revenue—a 5.3% jump that masked mounting threats from African swine fever, new US tariffs, and slowing global demand. For residents tracking food prices or employment in northern Italy's meat-processing regions, the data released by Assica at its 80th-anniversary assembly reveals a sector under pressure to diversify markets and hold the line at home.
Why This Matters
• Exports now exceed a quarter of production, making Italy's salumi makers vulnerable to trade disputes and disease outbreaks.
• Domestic consumption rose only 0.5% in volume, to 989,200 tonnes, signaling households are holding back despite cultural attachment to prosciutto and mortadella.
• African swine fever continues locking Italian producers out of China, Japan, and parts of North America—losses estimated at 20 million euros monthly.
• US tariffs threaten to erase recent gains in the sector's largest non-EU market, with potential 20% duties on the horizon.
Export Surge Hides Fragmentation
According to figures released by Assica—the national meat-processors' federation—Italy shipped 231,645 tonnes of cured pork products abroad in 2025, generating 2.51 billion euros. Both volume and value climbed 5.3% year-on-year, driven overwhelmingly by EU buyers, who absorbed 163,000 tonnes worth 1.7 billion euros, up 6.4% and 6.6% respectively.
Aged prosciutto crudo alone cleared the 1 billion euro threshold, while pancetta volumes surged 20.3% and bresaola found new fans in Spain, which increased purchases by 30.7% in tonnage. France and Germany remain anchor customers, and the United Kingdom—despite Brexit friction—lifted orders 7.6% in quantity.
Non-EU markets, however, told a different story. Shipments to so-called third countries rose a tepid 2.9% by weight and 2.6% by value, reaching 67,835 tonnes and 811 million euros. The United States, historically the top buyer outside the bloc, actually pulled back 3.8% in volume and 5.8% in value, importing only 19,394 tonnes worth 249 million euros. Assica president Lorenzo Beretta warned that "recent interest-rate increases and deteriorating economic forecasts" risk further setbacks in the coming months.
African Swine Fever Remains a Trade Chokepoint
The African swine fever (ASF) outbreak, first detected on Italy's mainland in January 2022 and now affecting parts of Piedmont, Liguria, Lazio, Calabria, Campania, Lombardy, and Emilia-Romagna, has shut or restricted access to some of the world's most lucrative pork markets. China and Japan halted imports entirely; South Korea automatically blocks regions with new cases; the United States and Canada apply province-specific bans. An outbreak in Parma province—home to protected designations such as Prosciutto di Parma—triggered cascading restrictions.
Cumulative losses since 2022 are estimated at 500 million euros, with ongoing monthly damage around 20 million euros. For employees in meat-processing clusters around Parma, Modena, and Brescia, these restrictions pose a strategic challenge: companies are unlikely to add shifts or hire aggressively until third-country markets reopen or stabilize. Any abrupt closure of a major EU buyer—say, due to a new disease outbreak or protectionist measure—could trigger layoffs, given the sector's thin domestic growth cushion.
Efforts to adopt regionalization principles—allowing exports from disease-free zones even when other areas remain infected—have achieved limited traction. Serbia and Thailand reopened selectively in late 2025, accepting aged or cooked products from clean areas, but Japan still refuses to segment risk by region.
Italy's Ministry of Health and European Commission veterinarians have redrawn restriction zones multiple times. In December 2025 the EU reclassified portions of Basilicata, Campania, and Lombardy as disease-free, yet wild-boar populations continue to carry the virus, complicating eradication.
Domestic Demand Holds Steady Under Economic Pressure
Inside Italy, availability for consumption edged up 0.5% to 989,200 tonnes, translating to 16.6 kg per capita annually. That marginal gain reflects consumer loyalty more than robust spending power: surveys show only 2% of Italian households are willing to "empty the shopping cart" when inflation bites, preferring instead to cut leisure, apparel, or dining-out budgets before abandoning staple foods.
Prosciutto cotto (cooked ham) remains the category leader at 28.1% of all salumi sold, followed by prosciutto crudo at 21%, mortadella and wurstel at 19.6%, salame at 8.3%, and bresaola at 2.4%. The residual 20.6% comprises artisanal and regional specialties. Shoppers report prioritizing Italian origin labels, DOP and IGP certifications, and sustainable or organic claims, even when cheaper imports are available, yet they also hunt aggressively for promotions and plan purchases to minimize waste.
Total domestic production reached 1.173 million tonnes, up 0.6%, valued at 9.643 billion euros—a 1.9% increase that lags inflation and suggests pricing power is constrained. Processors face higher energy costs than competitors in France, Germany, and Spain, squeezing margins as feed and labor expenses climb.
Consumers shopping for salumi will continue to see steady prices rather than bargains. With production costs rising and export absorbing a larger share of output, retailers have little incentive to discount. The bright spot: the resilience of DOP and IGP designations means that even budget-conscious families can identify authentic, regionally produced items and avoid imitations.
Tariff and Geopolitical Clouds Overhead
Beyond disease barriers, the sector confronts protectionist trade policy. Washington has floated a 20% blanket duty on cured meats, which would reverse recent gains and push volumes back to 2022 levels. Unlike earlier narrow tariffs, this measure would hit the entire product range, including premium prosciutto crudo, where Italian exporters enjoy pricing power.
Trade negotiators in Rome and Brussels are scrambling to carve out exemptions or secure regionalization recognition that would at least preserve shipments from ASF-free provinces. Meanwhile, energy-cost disparities within Europe—Italian processors pay more per kilowatt-hour than rivals in France and Germany—erode competitiveness even inside the single market.
Assica has called for a "constant dialogue with Italian and EU institutions" to level the playing field and accelerate veterinary diplomacy. The federation also promotes campaigns such as "Trust Your Taste, Choose European Quality", co-financed by Brussels, to reinforce brand equity in markets where Italian salumi compete against Spanish jamón and German cold cuts.
Outlook: Cautious Optimism, Structural Fragility
Industry forecasts anticipate that global cured-meat demand will approach 28 billion dollars in 2025 and surpass 100 billion dollars within five years, implying a compound annual growth rate near 6%. Italian producers are well positioned to capture premium segments, thanks to centuries-old recipes, artisan techniques, and protected-origin labels.
Yet the path forward is uneven. EU markets offer reliable volume but limited pricing upside. Third countries promise higher margins but remain hostage to sanitary politics and geopolitical friction. Domestic consumption, culturally embedded, provides ballast but little dynamism: households are eating roughly the same amount of salumi they did five years ago, just paying more for it.
For entrepreneurs and investors eyeing food exports, the sector's 9 billion euro domestic value and 2.5 billion euro export footprint offer opportunity, but geographical and sanitary bottlenecks—not product quality—are the binding constraints. New ventures will need robust veterinary-compliance infrastructure and diversified market portfolios.
For Beretta and his members, the next twelve months will test whether diplomatic efforts can unlock Asia-Pacific markets faster than tariffs can close North American ones—and whether wild boar can be controlled before another Parma-sized outbreak resets the export clock to zero.
