The Italian Parliament is set to debate nuclear power legislation on Tuesday, May 26, 2026, with a referendum on the issue now appearing almost certain—either in 2027 or 2028—despite two previous public votes that rejected atomic energy.
The nuclear bill, designed to authorize new-generation small modular reactors (SMRs), has cleared the joint Environment and Industry Committees at the Chamber of Deputies and faces its first floor vote on May 26, 2026. The government aims for final approval before the summer recess, with implementing decrees expected by year-end. If that timeline holds, Italy could have its first reactors operational between 2033 and 2034.
Why This Matters
• A referendum is "inevitable" according to Minister Luca Ciriani, likely triggered by opposition groups collecting signatures to force an abrogative vote.
• Legal ambiguity around electoral law means the referendum could come as early as spring 2027, not 2028 as the government initially assumed.
• Italy rejected nuclear power twice—in 1987 and 2011—with overwhelming majorities of 80.6% and 94.05% respectively.
• Energy bills and climate targets are at the heart of the debate, with supporters citing lower costs and critics warning of waste management risks and renewable alternatives.
What This Means for Residents
For anyone living in Italy, the nuclear debate isn't abstract—it's about electricity bills, energy security, and long-term environmental policy.
Cost and Supply: Supporters, including Enel President Paolo Scaroni and Confindustria President Emanuele Orsini, argue that nuclear power would reduce Italy's heavy reliance on imported gas and stabilize prices. Italy currently imports roughly 85% of its energy, making it vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Nuclear advocates claim system-wide savings would eventually filter down to consumer tariffs. However, any impact on household electricity bills won't materialize before the mid-2030s, when the first reactors become operational.
Renewables vs. Nuclear: Opposition parties, led by Alleanza Verdi e Sinistra (AVS) and the Five Star Movement (M5S), counter that renewables—wind, solar, and hydropower—are now cheaper and faster to deploy than nuclear, with no radioactive waste legacy. AVS leader Angelo Bonelli dismissed the government's referendum speculation as "preventive victimization," insisting Italians already rejected nuclear twice and will do so again at the ballot box in 2027.
Waste and Safety: The question of where to store spent fuel remains unresolved. Italy still lacks a national repository for radioactive waste, a problem dating back to the closure of its four reactors in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Critics warn that rushing into new reactors without solving the waste issue repeats past mistakes.
The Referendum Question: When, Not If
Luca Ciriani, Minister for Parliamentary Relations, triggered immediate controversy during an appearance at the Trento Economics Festival when he stated that a referendum on nuclear energy would "inevitably" take place. Hours earlier, Environment and Energy Security Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin had described a signature-gathering campaign against the bill as a "given."
Initially, Ciriani's staff clarified he was merely hypothesizing that anti-nuclear groups might petition for an abrogative referendum under Article 75 of the Constitution—a citizen-led mechanism requiring 500,000 signatures or backing from five regional councils. But the remarks revealed internal government calculations: a referendum is now seen as a near-certainty, with the only question being when it occurs.
The Legal Debate: 2027 or 2028?
The Ministry of Environment initially assumed 2028, reasoning that Law 352 of 1970 prohibits referendum requests "in the year preceding the expiration of either Chamber." Since parliamentary elections are scheduled for 2027, the thinking went, no referendum could be held during that electoral year.
But several constitutional scholars dispute this interpretation. They argue that if signature collection is submitted by September 30, 2026, it would fall outside the prohibited window—potentially triggering a referendum as early as spring 2027, right in the middle of the campaign season. That scenario would force voters to weigh both nuclear policy and the government's broader agenda simultaneously, raising the political stakes considerably.
What the Bill Actually Proposes
The draft law delegates authority to the government to establish a national nuclear program covering the full lifecycle of atomic energy: site selection, safety protocols, radioactive waste management, and financial guarantees. The focus is on small modular reactors, a newer technology that proponents say is safer, more flexible, and cheaper than the large plants of the past.
Key provisions approved by the Committees include:
• Prioritization of Italian and European supply chains for reactor components, aiming to bolster domestic industry.
• Voluntary hosting: Municipalities can now self-nominate to host facilities, removing the top-down imposition model that fueled backlash in the 1980s.
• Operational timeline: First reactors targeted for mid-2030s, pending regulatory framework completion.
Italy joined the European Nuclear Alliance in June 2025 and contributes to the Industrial Alliance on Small Modular Reactors and several EU-wide Important Projects of Common European Interest (IPCEI) on innovative nuclear technologies. In 2025, the government established Nuclitalia, a state entity tasked with evaluating which reactor designs best suit Italian geography and demand patterns.
The Shadow of 1987 and 2011
Italy's nuclear history looms large. In November 1987, following the Chernobyl disaster, Italians voted in three referendum questions that effectively dismantled the country's nuclear program. With an 80.6% "Yes" vote against government override powers, the result led to the shutdown of the Latina, Trino Vercellese, and Caorso plants by 1990.
A revival attempt in the late 2000s under the Berlusconi government collapsed after the March 2011 Fukushima disaster. That June, 94.05% of voters chose to repeal the laws permitting new reactors, on a turnout of nearly 55%. The referendum result has been binding ever since—at least legally. Politically, it's a different story.
Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has framed nuclear as essential to meeting EU climate targets and reducing dependence on fossil fuel imports. She wants the delegation law passed before August and implementation finalized by December. Yet even within the majority coalition, there's awareness that public opinion hasn't shifted much: polls still show skepticism, particularly among younger voters and residents near proposed sites.
Electoral Reform Adds to the Mix
The nuclear push isn't the only high-stakes legislative gambit. The government is simultaneously advancing an electoral law reform, with a first Chamber vote targeted for late June. The proposal includes a 42% majority bonus, elimination of runoff elections, and no bonus awarded if Chamber and Senate results diverge.
Preference voting provisions will be introduced via floor amendment, avoiding the transparent roll-call vote that might expose internal dissent. Opposition parties, including the Democratic Party (PD), have already declared the reform dead on arrival in the Senate. PD climate spokesperson Annalisa Corrado mocked the nuclear referendum talk as "victimization in advance."
The collision course is clear: if signature-gathering succeeds by September 30, Italy could face a nuclear referendum in spring 2027, just months before or during parliamentary elections. That would turn energy policy into a central campaign issue, with the government's credibility on the line.
Impact on Foreign Residents and Investors
For foreign residents and businesses operating in Italy, the nuclear debate has tangible implications:
• Energy-intensive industries (manufacturing, data centers) may see cost relief if nuclear comes online, but not before the mid-2030s.
• Property values near proposed reactor sites could fluctuate, particularly if municipalities volunteer to host facilities in exchange for compensation.
• Regulatory uncertainty persists: a referendum defeat would kill the nuclear program for a third time, likely closing the door for another generation.
Italy's second-largest nuclear industrial supply chain in Europe (after France) remains largely dormant. Companies like Ansaldo Nucleare and Sogin (the state decommissioning agency) could see significant investment if the law passes and survives a referendum. Conversely, a "No" vote would redirect capital toward solar, wind, and grid infrastructure.
What Happens Next
The Chamber debate on May 26, 2026 will test the government's discipline. Even if the bill passes, the Senate must also approve it, and then the real battle begins: opposition groups have until September 30, 2026 to gather signatures. If they succeed, the Constitutional Court will rule on admissibility by February 10, 2027, and the referendum would likely be held in April or May 2027.
Minister Ciriani insists the majority is "ready to defend our reasons" and "unafraid" of a public vote. But history suggests caution: Italy has never approved nuclear power at the ballot box, and the two previous referendums weren't close. Whether a decade of energy crises and climate pressure has changed minds is a question worth approximately €10 billion—the estimated cost of building Italy's first SMR fleet.
For now, the nuclear clock is ticking, and the next 120 days will determine whether Italy rejoins the atomic age or closes the book for good.
