The Italian logistics sector reached a valuation of €94.3B in 2026, marking a modest 1.9% increase from 2024. Yet beneath this headline growth lies a structural squeeze that could reshape how goods move across the peninsula: costs are rising faster than volumes, margins are tightening, and the nation's transport backbone is showing signs of strain.
Why This Matters
• Operating margins under pressure: Diesel costs jumped nearly 30% since 2019, while electricity bills climbed over 25% in the same period—squeezing profitability across the entire supply chain.
• Infrastructure at capacity: Italy's highway network faces growing congestion, and rail freight fell 4% in train-kilometers during 2025, signaling deeper modal shift failures.
• Digital dividend on the table: Full-scale digitalization could unlock savings of up to €18B across the logistics chain—but implementation remains fragmented.
These findings emerged from the second 2026 Report by Osservatorio Freight Insights, a joint initiative of the Italian National Center for Sustainable Mobility (MOST) and the CSELI Foundation, presented to the Italian Chamber of Deputies this week. The data paints a portrait of a sector caught between numerical expansion and operational fragility.
When Growth Masks Fragility
Italy's logistics industry now accounts for nearly €95B in annual activity, yet the headline figure conceals a troubling dynamic: the cost curve has outpaced the volume curve. In practical terms, companies are moving goods at higher expense without proportional revenue gains, compressing profit margins and heightening uncertainty across the supply chain.
Energy represents the most acute pressure point. The price of automotive diesel has surged close to 30% compared to 2019 levels, while industrial electricity tariffs rose by more than a quarter over the same span. These increases have been compounded by broader operational cost inflation visible across European logistics markets. The 2026 Budget Law introduced further burdens, including higher fuel excise duties, increased highway tolls, and new levies on non-EU imports—all of which reverberate through the entire logistics chain.
Labor costs climbed 4.4% in 2025, electricity expenses rose 7.9%, and warehouse rents increased 3.5%, according to sector monitoring data. Add to this a shrinking pool of carriers—roughly 730 road haulage operators exited the market in the past year—and an aging vehicle fleet, and the result is a sector under structural stress.
Infrastructure Chokepoints
Italy's physical transport network is reaching critical saturation levels. The highway system, which carries the lion's share of domestic freight, now exhibits persistent congestion along key corridors, directly impacting delivery times and competitiveness. The situation on rail is equally concerning: freight traffic on Italian railways contracted approximately 4% in train-kilometers during 2025, underscoring persistent difficulties in achieving effective intermodal transport—the shift from road to rail that policymakers have long championed.
Compounding domestic bottlenecks, the sector also contends with volatile global shipping patterns. The diversion of maritime traffic from the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope route between 2024 and 2025 added roughly two weeks to transit times between the Far East and Mediterranean ports, lengthening supply chains and raising costs.
Yet Italy retains strategic maritime assets. The country ranks third in Europe for total port throughput, handling nearly 15% of all seaborne tonnage moved within Europe. However, first-quarter 2026 data showed signs of slowdown, with container volumes dipping at several terminals and some facilities nearing physical capacity limits.
The ETS Squeeze on Maritime Transport
A particularly contentious issue is the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), extended to the maritime sector starting in January 2024 under the "Fit for 55" package. Shipping companies must now purchase carbon allowances for greenhouse gas emissions—40% of emissions in 2024, 70% in 2025, and 100% from 2026 onward for intra-EU voyages. For international routes starting or ending at an EU port, 50% of emissions are covered.
The economic impact is substantial. European-wide, the first-year cost exceeded €6.5B. For Italian ship operators, the burden is projected to escalate from €250M in 2024 to €1B by 2030. Compliance costs per tonne of fuel may rise as much as 45%, with overall transport cost impacts estimated at 3.7% to 8%, depending on vessel type and fuel source.
Pasquale Russo, president of Conftrasporto and vice president of Confcommercio, called for urgent intervention: "It is necessary to revise the ETS system, which is damaging maritime transport, and to immediately support the development of road-rail intermodality." Industry observers warn of carbon leakage—the risk that vessels will divert to non-EU ports such as Tanger Med or Port Said to avoid ETS costs, undermining Italian transhipment hubs and the broader national trade system. The asymmetric application of the scheme places Italian ports at a competitive disadvantage relative to North African hubs, with knock-on effects for roll-on/roll-off (ro-ro) services and truck traffic, potentially pushing more freight back onto congested highways.
What This Means for Residents and Businesses
For companies operating in or trading with Italy, these dynamics translate into higher logistics costs that ripple through final prices. Importers and exporters face longer lead times due to infrastructure congestion and rerouted shipping lanes. Small and medium enterprises, which form the backbone of Italian manufacturing, confront rising transport bills without corresponding revenue growth, squeezing competitiveness in export markets.
For consumers, the cost pressures feed into inflation for goods, particularly imported products and e-commerce deliveries. The continued expansion of online retail—expected to drive parcel volumes higher—will test already strained last-mile networks, potentially leading to slower deliveries or higher fees.
Regional disparities may widen. Southern Italian ports, despite strategic Mediterranean positioning, risk losing traffic to North African competitors if policy interventions do not address the ETS imbalance and infrastructure deficits. Conversely, northern logistics hubs face their own saturation issues as highway and rail capacity constraints bite.
The €18B Digital Opportunity
Amid the challenges, digitalization emerges as the sector's most promising lever for competitiveness recovery. According to Vittorio Marzano, professor at the University of Naples Federico II and report co-author, full-scale digital transformation could generate savings of up to €18B across the logistics value chain by reducing operational times, cutting administrative overhead, and improving asset utilization.
The Italian National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) has allocated over €250M specifically for logistics digitalization, targeting infrastructure interoperability, smart mobility systems, and energy efficiency. A cornerstone initiative is the LogIN Business program, which channels more than €157M to support corporate investments in digital technology. Over 1,200 companies have launched digitalization projects under this scheme, implementing:
• Interoperable digital platforms integrated with the National Logistics Platform (PLN) for unified data and document management.
• Advanced cargo tracking using IoT sensors, RFID tags, and geolocation systems.
• Blockchain solutions for certifying logistics and documentary flows.
• Artificial intelligence for demand forecasting, load optimization, and dynamic route planning.
• Electronic documentation such as eCMR (electronic Consignment Note), aligning with the EU's eFTI regulation, which mandates digital data use in freight transport from 2027.
An additional €175M from the PNRR targets maritime and port digitalization, aiming to make at least 70% of Port Community Systems (PCS) interoperable with the PLN. The Italian Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport is pursuing a "federation of PCS" model to ensure unified data governance and alignment with European standards. A concrete example is the digitalization of the Free Trade Zone at the Port of Taranto, which has streamlined customs procedures and enhanced cargo traceability.
Italy is also actively engaged in European projects such as eFTI4EU, eFTI4ALL, and eFTI4LIVE, building cross-border digital infrastructure essential for strengthening European logistics corridors. The challenge is creating ecosystems of interoperability—linking public and private platforms, multiple transport modes, customs systems, ports, terminals, and operators into a seamless digital network.
Policy Responses and Next Steps
Gianmarco Montanari, director of MOST, stated that "the 2026 Report clearly shows that, although the logistics sector is growing, its fragilities require immediate attention." Vincenzo Amich, deputy from the Fratelli d'Italia party who participated in the Chamber session organized by Transport Commission President Salvatore Deidda, acknowledged the government's role: "As a governing force, we are working in Italy and in Europe to overcome many of these critical issues."
Proposed solutions span multiple fronts. On the ETS, industry representatives advocate for reinvestment of carbon auction revenues back into the maritime sector, potentially through the "Sea Modal Shift" program, and the creation of a national maritime transition fund to support the shift to low-emission fuels such as LNG, bio-LNG, e-methanol, and green ammonia. Electrification of port berths (cold ironing) and the development of "green maritime corridors" are also priorities, though they require substantial infrastructure investment.
On intermodality, calls for immediate support to boost road-rail freight transfer reflect frustration with the persistent decline in rail cargo. PNRR-funded works have inadvertently reduced rail capacity during construction phases, exacerbating the modal imbalance.
For digitalization, the regulatory push from the 2027 eFTI mandate provides a hard deadline for companies to transition from paper to digital flows. The key will be ensuring smaller operators—who often lack capital and technical expertise—can access support programs and integrate with national platforms.
Outlook: Balancing Growth and Resilience
Italy's logistics sector is at an inflection point. The €94.3B valuation and modest 1.9% growth signal a market that remains active, but the underlying cost-volume mismatch threatens long-term competitiveness if left unaddressed. Energy inflation, infrastructure saturation, regulatory burdens from the ETS, and global shipping instability combine to create a challenging operating environment.
The sector's strategic importance is undeniable—Italy's position as Europe's third-largest maritime freight handler and its role as a Mediterranean gateway for Asian goods make logistics a national economic pillar. Yet maintaining that position requires coordinated action: investments in rail and intermodal capacity, targeted support for the maritime sector to navigate the ETS transition, accelerated digitalization rollout, and infrastructure upgrades to relieve congestion.
For businesses, the message is clear: early adoption of digital tools offers a competitive edge, not just in cost savings but in resilience and speed. For policymakers, the challenge is ensuring that growth translates into sustainable, efficient logistics that supports Italian manufacturing, trade, and territorial cohesion rather than becoming a bottleneck that constrains them.
