Pentagon weighs historic US troop cut from Europe, with Italy directly in the frame
The United States Department of Defense is actively reviewing plans to withdraw between 25,000 and 50,000 troops from Europe, a reduction that would represent the most significant cut to American military presence on the continent since the end of the Cold War. According to reports from NBC, the proposal includes the removal of aircraft, naval assets, weaponry and tens of thousands of service members.
The potential withdrawal would affect roughly one-third to one-half of the current 80,000-strong US contingent stationed across Europe. Italy, along with Germany and Spain, hosts the largest share of American forces and would be among the countries most affected by any reduction.
Timeline points to decision after US elections
General Alexus Grynkewich, head of the United States European Command, is expected to deliver an initial analysis to Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on 19 September 2026. A final recommendation on the troop withdrawals is slated for 6 November 2026, after which it would be presented to President Donald Trump for approval. Any definitive cuts would follow that date.
The review forms part of the Trump administration's broader strategy to encourage European allies to assume greater responsibility for their own conventional defence, while the United States shifts strategic focus toward the Indo-Pacific region and homeland security.
Italy faces pressure amid Hormuz dispute
Italy has been explicitly named by the US President as a potential target for withdrawals, with comments that the country "has not been helpful" regarding the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Italian Defence Minister Guido Crosetto stated he did not understand the reasoning, emphasising Italy's willingness to participate in navigation protection missions. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni reaffirmed Italy's commitment to NATO and signalled the intention to increase defence spending, though with the caveat of doing so "with our own timing and methods."
Germany, which hosts the largest number of US troops in Europe, is also in the crosshairs. The reported withdrawal of 5,000 soldiers from German territory comes partly in response to critical remarks from Chancellor Friedrich Merz regarding US handling of the Iranian crisis. Spain, too, has been cited as facing possible reductions due to a perceived lack of cooperation.
Strategic rationale stresses allied burden-sharing
Official Pentagon motives, as outlined in the 2026 National Defense Strategy, centre on four key priorities: defense of the US homeland, deterrence of China in the Indo-Pacific, increased allied defence spending, and expansion of the American defense industrial base. The administration has set a new global benchmark for allies of 5% of GDP allocated to defence — 3.5% for core military spending and an additional 1.5% for security-related expenditures.
US officials argue that Europe's declining share of global economic power, combined with the need to recalibrate forces against Russian threats while accounting for allied capabilities, justifies a reduced American footprint. Options under consideration also include repositioning some forces toward NATO's eastern flank.
NATO and experts warn of capability gaps
Alliance officials and security analysts have raised alarms about the consequences of such a large-scale withdrawal. NATO has expressed concern that pulling back US forces could "encourage" Russian aggression and leave Europe exposed. European governments are not currently equipped to fill the void, particularly in areas like strategic airlift, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, aerial refuelling, and integrated air and missile defence — sectors heavily dependent on American assets.
Some assessments compare the impact of a full-scale withdrawal to that of a Russian nuclear attack. Experts also warn that a significant pullback would damage US credibility globally, creating power vacuums that adversaries could exploit.
Poland stands as an exception: Warsaw has made progress toward establishing a permanent American military base, viewing it as essential for security on NATO's eastern edge.
For Italy, the implications are tangible. A substantial reduction in US forces could affect local economies near bases such as Aviano, alter Italy's strategic weight within NATO, and require Rome to accelerate defence spending plans that have пока что proceeded at a measured pace.
The coming weeks will bring greater clarity. With the initial Pentagon assessment due tomorrow and a final recommendation expected in November, European capitals are watching closely — and calculating how quickly they can bolster their own defences.
