The world is experiencing its highest concentration of armed conflict since World War II. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program has confirmed 8 interstate wars and 65 total armed conflicts in 2025—figures that will reshape international stability, trade flows, and economic forecasts well into 2026 and beyond.
Why This Matters
• Record violence: Approximately 244,600 deaths from organized violence were recorded in 2025, making it the second-deadliest year since the 1994 Rwanda genocide.
• Interstate escalation: The number of state-versus-state conflicts has doubled for two consecutive years, marking the steepest climb in international warfare since 1945.
• Economic disruption: Global trade growth is projected to slow to 1.9% or less in 2026, down from 4.6% in 2025, with inflationary pressure driven by energy price spikes and supply-chain fragmentation.
• Regional instability: Conflicts span Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Myanmar, the Sahel, and flashpoints between India and Pakistan, alongside Israel and Syria—each with cascading consequences for migration, food security, and commodity prices.
What This Means for Italy and the European Economic Space
For Italy, these conflicts translate into three immediate pressures: migration flows, energy volatility, and trade disruption.
First, the Mediterranean remains a primary corridor for displaced populations fleeing wars in Sudan, the Sahel, and parts of the Middle East. Italy's position as a frontline state for irregular arrivals has already strained social services and municipal budgets in coastal regions like Sicily and Puglia; recent policy responses have shifted more processing capacity to these areas, but the 2025 conflict surge will likely intensify those pressures throughout 2026 and 2027.
Second, energy prices remain vulnerable. Italy has significantly diversified away from Russian gas since 2022, but still relies on Middle Eastern and North African sources. Conflicts in the Middle East—particularly any escalation near the Strait of Hormuz—threaten oil and liquefied natural gas supplies that Italy depends on, accounting for roughly one-third of the country's energy imports. Analysts predict sustained inflationary pressure if hostilities disrupt key shipping routes or production hubs, complicating the European Central Bank's efforts to bring rates down and support growth.
Third, trade flows are being redrawn. The World Trade Organization has warned that global merchandise trade could grow by as little as 1.4% in 2026 if energy prices remain elevated and conflict zones continue to sever key logistical corridors. Italy's export-driven economy—particularly its manufacturing and luxury goods sectors—will feel the effects of slower global demand and higher transport costs.
A Statistical Spike That Ends Eight Decades of Relative Restraint
For most of the post-1945 era, interstate wars—those formally declared or de facto fought between sovereign governments—remained anomalies. The Uppsala Conflict Data Program, based at Sweden's Uppsala University and regarded as the authoritative global monitor of organized violence, began systematic tracking in 1946. Since then, large-scale wars between nation-states have been comparatively rare; internal conflicts, civil wars, and insurgencies accounted for the majority of fatalities.
That pattern has reversed. Eight interstate conflicts were active in 2025, including the Russia-Ukraine war, Iran-Israel hostilities, India-Pakistan border clashes, and Israel-Syria engagements. This tally represents the highest count since the conclusion of World War II and continues a troubling trend: the figure has doubled annually since 2023, when only two such wars were active.
Shawn Davies, senior analyst at the UCDP, described the shift as evidence of "a clear increase in tensions between states and fundamental changes in the global security order." He noted that the relative scarcity of interstate wars over the past several decades is now giving way to a multipolar landscape where major and regional powers alike are more willing to escalate disputes militarily.
Thirteen Wars Cross the 1,000-Death Threshold
Beyond the raw count of conflicts, the intensity of violence has also surged. The UCDP classifies a conflict as a "war" when it produces at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in a calendar year. Thirteen conflicts met that threshold in 2025—the highest number since 1992, the final year of widespread post-Cold War instability.
The Russia-Ukraine war remains the single deadliest, accounting for roughly 94,700 deaths in 2025 alone—approximately 62% of all global combat fatalities. The Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza and the civil war in Sudan were the next most lethal, each producing tens of thousands of casualties and displacing millions.
Civilian deaths surged across the board. The UCDP recorded approximately 76,500 civilian fatalities from one-sided violence—defined as attacks by organized armed groups against unarmed populations—the worst figure since the 1994 Rwandan genocide. The massacres in El Fasher, Sudan, accounted for a substantial share of this toll, underscoring the fragility of humanitarian protection mechanisms in active war zones.
Geopolitical Fragmentation and the Erosion of Multilateral Order
The 2025 data arrives amid broader warnings from the World Economic Forum and the OECD that the post-Cold War architecture of international cooperation is fraying. Great-power competition among the United States, China, and Russia now defines the strategic environment, with each leveraging military, cyber, and economic tools to redraw spheres of influence.
The decline in effectiveness of global institutions—once capable of mediating disputes and enforcing international law—has left regional conflicts to escalate unchecked. Sanctions, counter-sanctions, and trade barriers have become routine instruments of statecraft, accelerating a shift from globalized supply chains to regionalized or "minilateral" trade blocs.
For Italy and the EU, this fragmentation poses strategic risks. The continent is increasingly exposed: dependent on external energy, vulnerable to migration pressures from conflict zones to the south and east, and lacking a unified defense posture. Experts caution that Europe risks being sidelined in a multipolar world unless member states commit to deeper integration on defense and foreign policy.
Outlook: Conflict Likely to Persist Through 2027
Forecasts for 2026 and 2027 offer little optimism. The wars in Ukraine, Sudan, and Myanmar are expected to continue or intensify. Flashpoints in Yemen, the Sahel, Ethiopia-Eritrea, and the Taiwan Strait remain volatile, with analysts warning that China's military could be prepared to move on Taiwan by 2027.
The Uppsala Conflict Data Program's findings confirm what many security analysts have long feared: the post-1945 "long peace" among major powers has ended. In its place is a turbulent era of interstate rivalry, fragmented alliances, and weakened restraint mechanisms.
For Italian policymakers, businesses, and households, the implications are concrete: higher energy costs, disrupted export markets, intensified border pressures, and a European strategic environment that demands greater self-reliance. The 244,600 deaths recorded in 2025 are not merely statistics—they signal a structural shift in the international order, one that will reverberate through economies and societies far from the front lines.
