War in Iran drives up energy costs, leaving Italian families with billions in extra spending
The conflict in Iran has unleashed a wave of price increases across Italy, costing households and businesses an estimated €16.5 billion in additional energy expenses since the fighting began. Consumer groups and business associations warn that autumn will bring no relief, with the total bill potentially doubling by year's end.
Who pays what: the household impact
The Italy-based consumer association Codacons analysed how the inflation sparked by the Middle East conflict hits different types of families. Using inflation data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics (Istat) for the full year 2026, the study shows the extra cost varies sharply by household composition.
A pensioner living alone will spend €667 more this year for the same consumption, assuming prices remain at current levels. A single person under 35 faces an additional €704. A couple without children must budget €1,167 extra by year's end.
The burden grows with family size. A single-parent household will see costs rise by €976. A couple with one child faces €1,281 in additional spending, while a couple with two children must find €1,415 more than last year.
Work status also shapes the impact. An unemployed person would spend about €701 more by the end of 2026. A household where the main earner is a factory worker faces €936 extra. For managers and executives, the figure reaches €1,259. Business owners and self-employed professionals bear the highest additional cost at €1,616.
Fuels lead the surge
The Italy-based artisans' confederation CNA calculated that from the start of the conflict through 30 September, the energy price crisis forced families and businesses to spend roughly €16.5 billion more than they would have at February's average prices.
Fuel accounts for nearly half that total. The extra cost for petrol and diesel alone falls between €7.4 and €7.6 billion. Electricity accounts for another €5.8–€6 billion, while natural gas used directly by households and businesses adds €3–€3.3 billion.
September proved particularly brutal. The month alone generated an additional bill of €4.6–€5.2 billion, roughly one-third of the total accumulated since early March. The first half of September saw costs rise by €2.2–€2.5 billion, with another €2.4–€2.7 billion added in the second half.
Petrol prices in September reached their highest levels since March 2022. Diesel surpassed its previous peak from the 2022 energy crisis, setting a new nominal record in the weekly data series that dates back to 1996. On 21 September, the weekly average for petrol hit €2.141 per litre. Diesel reached €2.351 per litre in the 28 September reading.
Geography matters. Data from the Ministry of Enterprises and Made in Italy (MIMIT) as of 30 September shows the autonomous province of Bolzano recorded the highest prices for both fuels: €2.147 per litre for petrol and €2.360 for diesel. Among regions, Calabria had the highest average petrol price at €2.135, followed by Sicily at €2.132 and Basilicata at €2.128. For diesel, Sicily and Valle d'Aosta led at €2.342 per litre.
Electricity market under strain
The electricity market remains under severe pressure. The average National Single Price (PUN) for September 2026 sat provisionally around €208 per megawatt-hour, up from €114.41 in February, a rise of nearly 82%.
For vulnerable customers, those in the protected market, the impact is direct. From 1 October, reference electricity prices for vulnerable users rose 37.3% from the previous quarter, translating to approximately €236 more per year on average.
Gas prices have also climbed. For vulnerable customers, gas bills rose 12.7% in September compared to August, adding an estimated €201 per year to household costs.
What comes next
The Italy-based artisans' association CGIA of Mestre warns that despite decisions by Eni and other oil companies to cap petrol and diesel prices for October, families and businesses will still spend €1.1 billion more than in the same month last year.
Urban areas will feel the sharpest impact. Rome faces an additional €68.5 million in spending, Milan €49.5 million, and Naples €39.6 million. Brescia follows at €31.2 million, Turin at €27.8 million, and Bari at €25.6 million.
CNA projects that if capped fuel prices extend through year's end and electricity and gas quotes stay at September averages, the total additional energy bill for Italian families and businesses could reach €33 billion by the close of 2026. The fourth quarter alone risks adding more than €16 billion to the €16.5 billion already accumulated since March.
Price caps on fuel could yield savings between €400 million and over €1 billion, depending on duration and scope. But CNA President Dario Costantini warns this will not neutralize the pressure. Speaking about the crisis, he said: "Every van has become a travelling bill."
Lombardy bears the highest regional burden in absolute terms, with an estimated €163.9 million in additional monthly costs. Emilia-Romagna follows at €111.1 million and Veneto at €106.1 million.
Business groups are calling for structural responses. CNA has asked for greater transparency in price formation, measures accessible to micro and small enterprises, and the use of any additional tax revenue from rising prices to reduce energy costs for households and businesses.
The association argues that temporary interventions cannot replace a long-term strategy. CGIA has appealed to Brussels for a "Next Generation EU bis" measure, allowing member states to access grants and loans to address both the geopolitical crisis and the transition to renewable energy sources.
With winter approaching, the concern now shifts from petrol pumps to heating bills. CGIA notes that Italy's structural vulnerability to global market fluctuations demands stronger European action, including decoupling gas and electricity prices to stabilise costs.
