Oil prices slip below $100 threshold on news of strategic reserve release
The international benchmark Brent crude fell below the symbolic $100 per barrel mark on 2 October 2026, closing at $99.70 per barrel after a drop of 2.55%. The American reference WTI recorded an even steeper decline, losing 3.48% to settle at $89.64 per barrel in New York trading.
Both grades had touched intraday lows of $99.20 for Brent and $89 for WTI, representing declines of 3% and 4% respectively, before recovering slightly by the session close.
The sell-off followed reports from Bloomberg that several European countries are discussing the release of strategic reserves to dampen fuel prices, according to ANSA. The move comes after sustained pressure from the United States administration to increase supply and contain costs.
G7 agrees to 100 million barrel release
A subsequent videoconference of G7 leaders, chaired by French President Emmanuel Macron, resulted in a coordinated agreement to release a total of 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil from emergency reserves over the next four months.
A significant portion of diesel will be made available within the first 20 days. The plan was finalized during an emergency European Union meeting and the subsequent G7 call, with the express aim of reducing tension in international markets.
The countries involved in the discussions include France, Germany, Italy, Ireland and the United Kingdom. While Germany and Spain had previously expressed reservations about releasing additional barrels, the decision moved forward amid concerns over diesel supply disruptions linked to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.
What Italians pay at the pump
For residents in Italy, the drop in crude prices offers some relief, though the impact on pump prices is muted by the country's tax structure. Taxes — including accise and VAT — account for more than 50% of the final fuel price, meaning a fall in the cost of crude affects only the remaining portion.
When petrol averaged €1.75 per litre, approximately €0.73 came from excise duties and €0.31 from VAT. Italy also maintains mandatory oil reserves of nearly 10 million tonnes equivalent, sufficient for 90 days of autonomy in case of a total interruption of imports.
The release of strategic reserves is a temporary measure that can stabilize markets during crises, but it does not resolve structural issues tied to refining capacity and geopolitical supply risks. Historical price asymmetry also means retail fuel prices tend to rise quickly when crude climbs, but fall more slowly when it drops.
Analysts adjust forecasts
The current October prices remain above what most analysts had projected. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) had forecast in September that Brent would average $91 per barrel in 2026, falling to $74 in 2027. J.P. Morgan revised its outlook in July to $80 per barrel for Q4 2026, while a Reuters survey of 30 economists projected an average of $89.05 per barrel for the year.
The immediate trigger for the price decline — the coordinated reserve release — has reinforced expectations that Brent could hold below $100 for the remainder of 2026, though volatility remains high as markets weigh supply interventions against persistent geopolitical risks.
