Only three migrants have actually returned to Italy under the new EU Migration Pact—despite roughly 50 transfer requests and years of heated political debate over 80,000 rejected asylum transfers. This striking contrast has become the centerpiece of a fierce debate following the EU Migration and Asylum Pact, which became fully binding on June 12, 2026.
Why This Matters
The numbers tell a dramatic story. Only 3 migrants have physically arrived in Italy under the new Pact since mid-June, despite roughly 50 transfer requests from other EU countries. Meanwhile, between December 2022 and December 2025, Italy rejected approximately 80,000 Dublin transfer requests—asylum seekers who first registered in Italy but moved to other EU countries (known as "Dublinanti" after the Dublin regulations that govern which country processes asylum claims). This strategy has effectively prevented what would have been the equivalent of absorbing a medium-sized city's population.
Under the new rules, Italy's responsibility period for managing asylum claims has been extended to 20 months (up from 12), though search-and-rescue cases remain at 12 months. Meanwhile, countries including Germany, Austria, Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, and the Netherlands have all announced they will resume sending asylum seekers back to Italy if they were first registered there.
The Political Storm Over Migration Policy
A rare alignment of migration pressures and diplomatic tensions has thrust Italy's asylum strategy into the spotlight. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and opposition leader Elly Schlein of the center-left Democratic Party (PD) are now locked in a public clash over whether Italy's recent moves—particularly the suspension of Schengen rules with Spain after the Ceuta crisis—have backfired.
Schlein has labeled the government's approach a "boomerang," arguing that Italy's decision to suspend free movement with Spain set a dangerous precedent that now justifies other countries sending migrants back. In a statement released this week, she said: "When I warned that Meloni created a dangerous precedent for Europe, and especially for Italy, this is exactly what I meant."
Former Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte, now leader of the Five Star Movement (M5S), echoed the criticism, calling it a "magnificent own goal" in which "deportations work, but against us."
Meloni fired back, insisting that the Schengen suspension and the EU Migration Pact are entirely separate issues. She argued that the new Pact actually strengthens protections for countries of first entry like Italy by making it easier to execute accelerated repatriations and reinforcing the concept of safe third countries—a principle Rome has long championed.
What the New EU Migration Pact Actually Does
The Migration and Asylum Pact, composed of nine regulations and one directive, became fully binding for all 27 EU member states on June 12, 2026. It represents the most significant overhaul of Europe's asylum system in decades and has particular implications for frontline nations like Italy.
Under the previous Dublin III rules, Italy bore the bulk of responsibility for processing asylum claims from migrants who first registered on its soil. The new Pact retains this principle but introduces mechanisms designed to share the burden more equitably—on paper, at least.
Key provisions include:
• Extended responsibility window: Italy is now responsible for asylum seekers who entered irregularly for 20 months, up from 12. The exception is migrants rescued at sea, for whom the period remains 12 months.
• Faster transfer procedures: Notification via the Eurodac biometric database is now sufficient to trigger a transfer. Destination countries cannot refuse, only negotiate timing and logistics.
• Mandatory solidarity mechanism: Other EU states must either accept 21,000 relocations per year or pay €20,000 per refusal—totaling a €420M fund. Italy, Spain, Greece, and Cyprus are designated as priority beneficiaries.
• Frontier screening: All irregular arrivals undergo a 7-day screening process at the border, including biometric data collection, health checks, and security vetting. Those in frontier procedures are not considered to have legally entered Schengen and cannot leave designated reception facilities during processing.
The Numbers Behind the Rhetoric
According to data released by the Italy Ministry of the Interior, the country received approximately 50 transfer requests from other EU states since the Pact took effect in mid-June 2026. Of those, only 3 individuals have physically arrived on Italian soil.
Interior Minister Matteo Piantedosi told ANSA that the opposition's concerns are "sterile polemics," pointing out that if the current rate continues, Italy would receive an average of 20 people per year—a negligible figure compared to the tens of thousands who arrive via Mediterranean crossings.
Meanwhile, historical data shows a stark contrast. Between 2014 and 2022, Italy accepted 17,605 Dublin transfers. The peak year was 2018, when 6,468 migrants were sent back. Numbers plummeted during the pandemic—1,367 in 2020 and 1,468 in 2021—before climbing again to 2,315 in 2022.
Since the Meloni government issued a ministerial circular in December 2022 effectively blocking most Dublin transfers, Italy has rejected 80,000 requests—a figure the government now touts as evidence of its assertiveness in defending national interests.
Impact on Residents and Asylum Seekers
For residents of Italy, the debate has tangible implications. The government's hardline stance has so far kept the number of returnees low, reducing pressure on an already strained reception system. However, this could mean significant expansion of reception infrastructure in your region. Italy's network of hotspots and Centri di Permanenza per il Rimpatrio (CPR)—detention centers for deportation—is being expanded under the national implementation plan, with substantial public investment. Depending on where you live, this could mean new facilities opening nearby or increased local services related to asylum processing.
Civil society organizations and human rights groups have raised alarms about other aspects of the Pact. The frontier procedures allow for the detention of asylum seekers—including families with children—at border facilities for up to 12 weeks while their claims are processed, followed by another 12 weeks for deportation if refused. Critics warn this could lead to prolonged confinement in substandard conditions and undermine the principle of non-refoulement, which prohibits returning individuals to places where they face persecution.
The accelerated procedures also raise questions about due process. While the Pact promises free legal counsel and expanded family definitions, watchdog groups worry that speed will come at the expense of thorough case evaluations.
For asylum seekers themselves, the new rules create a harsh landscape. Those registered in Italy—even if they move onward to seek work or join family elsewhere in Europe—can now be returned more easily, and the 20-month responsibility window means Italy retains jurisdiction over their cases for longer.
The Ceuta Crisis and the Schengen Showdown
The migration debate cannot be separated from the Ceuta emergency that unfolded in late July. Approximately 72,000 migrants surged across the border from Tangier, Morocco, into Spain's North African enclave of Ceuta over two days, triggered by a mix of social media disinformation, a controversial Spanish Supreme Court ruling on maritime deportations, and perceived "pull factors" from Spain's April decision to regularize some undocumented migrants.
The crisis left at least 80 dead and thousands stranded in Ceuta, including unaccompanied minors. It also ignited a diplomatic firestorm.
Italy suspended its Schengen obligations with Spain on July 31, citing national security and the risk of secondary migration. Spain retaliated on August 8 by reinstating border checks for travelers from Italy. Palazzo Chigi refused to back down, maintaining controls through at least August 15, when another migrant surge was anticipated.
Eight other European countries—both EU and non-EU members—followed suit with their own border restrictions, fracturing the Schengen area and exposing deep rifts over migration policy. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called for stronger external borders and greater use of physical barriers, framing Ceuta as the first real test of the new Pact.
What Comes Next
Italy's strategy hinges on two pillars: blocking as many Dublin requests as possible and negotiating compensation arrangements with countries that operated rescue NGOs in the Mediterranean. The government has argued that German-flagged NGO ships, for instance, should trigger German responsibility for those rescued—an interpretation still under legal review.
The mandatory solidarity mechanism remains largely untested. While Italy is theoretically entitled to benefit from the €420M fund and the 21,000 annual relocations, a July review by the European Commission found that Rome had not resumed transfers and had refused the first 12 relocation offers.
As Sweden, Finland, Austria, and the Netherlands prepare their first transfers—Switzerland has already scheduled flights for late August, with an estimated 652 individuals potentially affected—Italy's political class is bracing for the next phase. The question is whether the new Pact will deliver the burden-sharing Rome was promised, or whether Italy will once again find itself absorbing the costs of Europe's external border.
For now, the government's message is clear: the numbers remain manageable, the rules are improving, and Italy will not passively accept whatever other states demand. Whether that holds true in the months ahead will depend on how robustly the solidarity mechanisms are enforced—and whether the rest of Europe is willing to share the load.
