Italy awaits deficit data that could end EU excessive deficit procedure
Italy's Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti says he is "hopeful" the country will exit the European Union's excessive deficit procedure, but stressed the outcome rests on independent statistics due within days. The National Institute of Statistics (Istat) will release its revision of the 2025 deficit-to-GDP ratio on 22 September, a figure that could fall below the EU's 3% threshold and clear the way for Italy to close the infringement procedure.
What Giorgetti said
Speaking via video link at the Portofino Talks 2026 event, Giorgetti was careful with his words. "I am not confident, I am hopeful for Italy and for the Italian Republic," he told the audience. The distinction matters: confidence implies certainty, while hope acknowledges that the decision lies with Istat, not the government.
He quoted the late football coach Vujadin Boskov: "A penalty is when the referee blows the whistle." The message was that Brussels will act on whatever numbers Istat certifies, and Eurostat subsequently validates. Italy cannot declare victory on its own.
The minister also said he believes Brussels is open to granting flexibility for energy investments, a point that could matter for Italy's fiscal planning in the years ahead.
Why the 22 September data matters
The excessive deficit procedure was opened against Italy in 2024 after the country breached the 3% deficit limit. The last official estimate, confirmed by Eurostat in April 2026, put the 2025 deficit at 3.1% of GDP, just above the permitted ceiling.
Istat's revision on 22 September could revise that figure downward. If the certified deficit comes in below 3%, the European Commission would assess the data, and the Council of the EU would then decide whether to close the procedure.
Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU Commissioner for the Economy, indicated on 16 September that exiting the procedure is possible if the revision brings the deficit under the threshold.
What flexibility on energy could mean
Separate from the deficit question, Italy has formally requested that the European Commission activate a national escape clause for energy and defence investments worth approximately €36 billion between 2026 and 2028.
The Commission has already signalled that limited fiscal flexibility is available for energy security measures that reduce dependence on fossil fuels. The provision allows for up to 0.3% of GDP per year, roughly €6.8 billion annually for Italy, with a cumulative cap of 0.6% over three years.
Eligible investments include electric vehicles, heat pumps, solar panels, home battery systems, grid upgrades and building renovations. A decision from the Council could come as early as October 2026.
How other countries have managed exit
Italy is not alone in navigating these rules. Spain exited an excessive deficit procedure in June 2019 after bringing its deficit down to 2.5% of GDP. Portugal closed its own procedure in June 2017 when its deficit fell to 2.0%.
France followed in June 2018 after nine years under surveillance, only to re-enter an excessive deficit procedure in July 2024 when its deficit hit 5.5%. The Council has given France until 2029 to correct its position.
Italy's public debt stands at 137.1% of GDP, the Bank of Italy reported in 2025, one of the highest ratios in the eurozone. Whatever the deficit outcome, Rome must still demonstrate a credible path to reduce that debt burden under the reformed EU fiscal framework adopted in April 2024.
