Gas prices hold steady near €75 amid supply concerns
European natural gas prices remain under pressure, with contracts on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) trading around €75.5 per megawatt-hour—roughly twice the rate Italian households paid in 2021. Despite recent declines in crude oil markets, gas costs for homes and businesses in Italy continue to hover at elevated levels due to insufficient winter storage and lingering supply risks.
European gas held at €75.5 on TTF as Hormuz traffic lags
Navigation data shows at least three liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers passed through the Strait of Hormuz last week, yet overall traffic through this critical chokepoint remains more than 75% below February levels. This disruption, combined with reduced pipeline flows, has constrained supply into Europe just as demand rises ahead of winter. European gas storage sites currently sit at approximately 71% capacity, well below the five-year seasonal average of 87%. Goldman Sachs projects storage could drop to 62% by month’s end under current demand trends.
Asian demand weakness offers partial relief
A softening in Asian LNG consumption is helping to cap European price spikes. Import data for September revealed Asian purchases at an eight-year low, freeing up cargoes that Europe can now compete for. Italy and its neighbors imported an estimated 7.98 million tonnes of LNG in September, with volumes expected to climb as heating needs grow. This shift demonstrates how demand reductions in one region can ease pressure elsewhere—but only temporarily.
Diversification drives long-term response
Both Europe and Asia are accelerating efforts to reduce reliance on Middle Eastern energy. The European Union's RepowerEU plan has pushed the renewable electricity share to 45.5% in early 2026, while Italy has positioned itself as a key transit hub for North African green energy. Meanwhile, Asian nations have turned to alternative suppliers, including Russia and the U.S., with some temporarily increasing coal use to manage costs.
For Italian households and businesses, the combined effect means elevated energy bills remain likely through the coming months, even as regular shipments continue to arrive at regasification terminals along the coast.
