The United States Central Command has completed its 13th consecutive night of airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure, marking nearly two weeks of sustained bombardment aimed at crippling Tehran's ability to threaten commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf. For residents and businesses in Italy—whose economy depends heavily on stable energy imports and Mediterranean trade routes—the conflict represents a direct threat to fuel prices, supply chains, and regional stability.
Why This Matters
• Oil prices: Global crude has surged past $100 per barrel as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, pushing up petrol and heating costs across Italy.
• Supply chain delays: Approximately 900 commercial vessels have required U.S. military escorts since May, slowing delivery times for goods transiting from Asia to European ports.
• Escalation risk: With Iran preparing "secondary retaliatory operations" and U.S. forces expanding deployments, the conflict could drag in regional allies and further destabilize markets.
The 13th Night: Scope and Targets
U.S. forces launched the latest wave of strikes at 00:45 Central European Time on Thursday, focusing on military command centers, drone depots, coastal surveillance posts, and communication networks across multiple Iranian provinces. According to CentCom, the operation concluded after 03:00 and aimed to "reduce Iran's capacity to threaten civilian mariners and commercial vessels transiting regional waters."
Iranian state media reported explosions in at least seven provinces. In Bandar Abbas, a strategic port city in Hormozgan province, power outages affected residential neighborhoods after strikes hit a Revolutionary Guard base and railway hub. Local officials confirmed two civilians injured in the Tappeh Allah-o-Akbar district. In Khuzestan province, areas near the city of Ahvaz came under fire, while residents in Khorramabad, Jask, and Omidiyeh also reported detonations. Air defense systems activated over eastern Tehran, and Revolutionary Guard forces in Kerman claimed to have intercepted a Tomahawk cruise missile.
The campaign has cost Washington $37.5 billion so far, with the Pentagon requesting an additional $67 billion to sustain operations. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth disclosed the figures amid congressional scrutiny over the protracted engagement.
Trump's Asset Seizure Gambit
President Donald Trump escalated rhetoric by declaring that all damage to vessels in the region will now be compensated using frozen Iranian funds held by the United States. "This is the fairest and most equitable solution," Trump wrote on Truth Social, suggesting the administration intends to liquidate Iranian state assets without judicial process.
The move drew a sharp rebuke from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who called the policy "an explosive precedent" that undermines global financial norms. "Once governments normalize confiscation, no one's assets are safe," Araghchi warned. "The chaos that follows will be neither pleasant nor peaceful." Legal experts note the action could breach international asset protection conventions and invite reciprocal seizures, potentially endangering Italian and European investments in contested jurisdictions.
What This Means for Italy
Italy's exposure to the Persian Gulf crisis operates on multiple levels. Energy dependence remains the most immediate concern: roughly 20% of global oil supply transits the Strait of Hormuz, and prolonged disruptions could force Italian refineries to source costlier alternatives or ration supply. Retail fuel prices have already climbed 8% since the conflict intensified in late February.
Shipping and logistics present a second vulnerability. Italian exporters—particularly in textiles, machinery, and food products—rely on predictable transit times through Middle Eastern waters to reach Asian markets. Insurers have tripled premiums for vessels entering the Gulf, adding €15,000-€25,000 per voyage and forcing some carriers to reroute around Africa, extending delivery schedules by two weeks.
Defense Minister Guido Crosetto expressed concern that Iran might widen the battlefield in response to U.S. strikes. "We can only observe and hope the conflict doesn't expand beyond its current perimeter," Crosetto said at an event in Rome. "But I wouldn't be surprised if Iran decides to spread chaos as widely as possible." Italy maintains naval assets in the region under international task forces, and any escalation could require additional deployments or expose Italian personnel to attack.
The Strait of Hormuz Standoff
Iran's partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz—a 33-kilometer-wide chokepoint handling 450 million barrels of crude since May—has become the war's central battlefield. Tehran announced it would not issue transit permits until U.S. hostilities cease, while Washington imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports in April. A fragile memorandum of understanding brokered by Pakistan in mid-June briefly reopened the waterway, but the truce collapsed within weeks as Iran and Oman unveiled plans to impose transit tolls, asserting sovereign control over the passage.
CentCom maintains the strait remains "open to commercial traffic," yet vessel counts remain far below pre-conflict levels, and shipping insurers have refused to lower premiums, citing persistent mine threats and drone attacks. The Revolutionary Guard has targeted over 30 commercial vessels in the past three months, endangering hundreds of crew members and prompting several European flags—including Italian-registered ships—to avoid the route entirely.
Regional Spillover and International Pressure
Houthi forces in Yemen, aligned with Tehran, have renewed attacks on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, threatening to open a second front. Trump warned of "severe military punishment" if the strikes continue, though Pentagon sources indicate U.S. forces are already stretched thin. Iranian missiles reportedly hit U.S. bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan in recent days, with Revolutionary Guard commanders pledging further retaliation.
European governments, including Italy, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, have signaled willingness to contribute to a UN-backed maritime security mission, but only under a ceasefire framework. Italian officials reiterated the need for "full respect of international law" and adherence to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which guarantees freedom of navigation through international straits.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned the situation is "spiraling out of control" and called for immediate de-escalation. China, whose energy imports depend heavily on Gulf routes, emphasized that "security and free navigation of the Strait of Hormuz are in the common interest of the international community."
Economic Fallout and Market Uncertainty
Beyond immediate price spikes, the conflict introduces broader uncertainties for Italian businesses. Delayed shipments disrupt just-in-time manufacturing, particularly in automotive and electronics sectors that source components from Asia. Currency volatility linked to oil shocks complicates hedging strategies for importers, while tourism operators face rising jet fuel surcharges that could dampen summer travel demand.
Italian banks with exposure to Middle Eastern markets are reassessing risk profiles, and the Borsa Italiana has seen increased volatility in energy and logistics stocks. Analysts warn that a prolonged conflict could shave 0.3-0.5% off Italy's GDP growth projections for 2026, compounding existing fiscal pressures.
No Clear Exit
Despite 13 nights of bombardment, neither side shows signs of backing down. Iran's military command has completed preparations for "secondary operational scenarios," according to Brigadier General Mohammad Akraminia, suggesting more aggressive responses are imminent. The U.S. has deployed additional aerial refueling tankers to Israel and medical personnel to Germany, indicating readiness for expanded operations.
For Italians monitoring the crisis from afar, the key question is whether diplomacy can arrest the cycle before it engulfs the wider region—and whether their government will be forced to choose between energy security and alliance commitments. The stakes extend far beyond the Gulf: every missile fired and every tanker seized ripples through global markets, hitting Italian consumers at the pump, Italian exporters in the ledger, and Italian policymakers in the war room.
