Gas prices climb back above €74 as storage shortfall and Middle East tensions weigh on market
European gas prices resumed their upward trajectory today, with the Dutch TTF benchmark settling at €74.04 per megawatt hour, up 1% on the day. The movement reverses brief losses seen earlier in the week, when quotations dipped below the €73 threshold during morning trading on 23 September.
The TTF, or Title Transfer Facility, serves as the continental reference price for natural gas. A megawatt hour roughly equals the energy needed to power an average Italian household for about a month.
Storage deficit stokes concern
Europe enters the heating season with storage levels at roughly 70% of capacity, well below the five-year average of 84% and last year's figure of nearly 80%. The shortfall leaves the market more exposed to supply disruptions and cold snaps.
Italy's own reserves remain relatively stronger at around 84%, though still down from almost 90% a year ago. Germany and the Netherlands face tighter margins, with storage sites sitting at roughly 55% and 51% respectively.
The European Union maintains a binding target of 90% storage capacity filled between 1 October and 1 December. The Gas Coordination Group, which monitors supply security across the bloc, convened on 24 September to assess the situation.
Geopolitical pressure points
Fighting in the Middle East has curtailed liquefied natural gas exports from the Gulf, according to market analysts. The conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States has disrupted shipments from Qatar, a major LNG supplier, and restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
LNG exports from the Persian Gulf now run at an estimated 15-25% of pre-war levels. Houthi actions in the Red Sea have further complicated shipping routes.
The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine continues to cast a shadow. The European Union is preparing to impose a total ban on Russian LNG by 2027, while Russia has signaled willingness to restart flows through the surviving Nord Stream pipeline — an offer European officials have largely dismissed.
What this means for bills
Italian businesses reported energy costs rising by more than a third between June and August, with gas up 36.6% and electricity up 37% on wholesale markets. Industrial groups have warned that prices above €80 per megawatt hour threaten competitiveness, particularly in energy-intensive sectors such as textiles and glass.
For households, the TTF level feeds directly into variable-rate contracts and indirectly into fixed offers when suppliers renegotiate terms. A megawatt hour at €74 translates to significantly higher bills than the same period last year, when prices hovered closer to €30-40.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs have suggested the benchmark could exceed €100 during peak winter demand if LNG imports fail to recover. Intesa Sanpaolo's downside scenario points to €140 per megawatt hour in the fourth quarter if a cold winter compounds supply constraints.
The Competition and Market Authority (AGCM) has called on Parliament to accelerate renewable energy investments as a longer-term response to price volatility, arguing that reducing dependence on imported gas remains the most effective buffer against future shocks.
